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Arkon

General Election Gigathread

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I mean this is still a massive win for her. ~35% of the vote in the final round is better than anyone would have predicted a year or so ago. This momentum should see her to a good ~25% of the seats in the assembly in a month; combined with the ~30-40% of the seats that Macron's brand new party will likely bring in, the NF is now a relevant force with real power and influence in a split chamber that will almost certainly rely on a power-sharing coalition to function. She's lost the presidency vote, sure, but her party has made and will make such massive leaps forward that the last six months can only be considered a monumental success for her.

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Didn't people say the same thing about her war criminal daddy in 2002 or some shit?

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It could have ended much worse. But every third voter going for the crypto-fascist is hardly cause for celebration.

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France voted in favor of the less entertaining option.

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He gained less than a percentage point between the two rounds (16.86% - 17.79%), she nearly doubled her vote share from an already stronger position. That vote share in 2002 collapsed to less than 12% by the assembly elections of that year, and so few of the FN candidates made it to the second round that they pulled less than 2% of the final round votes; in no small part due to the way the entirety of the non-FN voterbase rallied against her father. That has not happened in this presidential election, not by the same order of magnitude, so it's more than likely that she'll end up with a not-insignificant chunk of the seats in June. Not enough to do anything that matters, but enough to firmly cement the move from fringe whackjobs to a mainstream political power.

To be honest though, that's not what will matter too much. It's the Republican/Socialist "mainstream" collapse and the sudden appearance of Macron's party that has only existed for a matter of months that's the major issue. He's created the party from scratch, has very little in the way of experienced politicians as candidates, and is on course to be the single largest party without holding an outright majority. That (and the FN seats) represents a massive 'changing of the guard' in the assembly, and has the potential to be a massive shitshow if his candidates/elected representatives can't or don't adapt quickly. (See also; the absolute farce that most of the new SNP MPs have been since 2015 for us, and they weren't actually running the country).

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Numbers can be deceptive, when you consider absolutes she went from 7.7M people in the first round to 11M in the second, that's less impressive than doubling and about a fourth of the total number of electors. Abstention & void ballots are both exceptionally high. 

Macron boys are doubling down right now on the hardest line for them, which is don't try to make alliances with mainstream parties to get a majority in the assembly, don't accept deputies from them if they don't defect entirely/leave their old party. 

So yeah, some fun incoming in june. 

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CRACKS ARE FORMING in the FN too, some movement in there might happen. It's not totally excluded that they collapse in the parliamentary elections, they do better at the presidential. 

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On 07/05/2017 at 4:01 PM, Charmide said:

Too many ~insoumis~ around you fam :v: 

Bro, the facebook salt is amazing.
Ow6sdFo.png

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:cripes: 

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On 07/05/2017 at 8:47 PM, Arkon said:

but her party has made and will make such massive leaps forward that the last six months can only be considered a monumental success for her.

She did a massive jump backward because of the 2nd turn debate tho, she confirmed she was not "ready".

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On 10.5.2017 at 8:18 PM, Charmide said:

http://www.politico.eu/article/sigmar-gabriel-emmanuel-macron-win-means-germany-must-do-more-for-eu-french-election/ 

Hopefully some EU reforms actually happen and brexit would have been useful in a way. 

Don't hold your breath, Gabriel doesn't only look like a balloon of hot air; he most of the time really is one.

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Yeah well, he isn't the only one calling for it

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nice

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grwRqx.png

Dust has settled a little in France with a new govt being formed, Macron's party is now projected to get a decent majority in the assembly by itself, mainstream right is the main opposition party, mainstream left continues its descent to the dumpster, Le Pen's FN only gets 10-15 guys. 

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