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Arkon

General Election Gigathread

90 posts in this topic

300px-Theresa_may_pry_minister_of_britai

 

In which Mrs 1984 attempts to convince a room of privately-educated knobs that grammar schools aren't discriminatory, a retired English teacher, a Cumbrian vicar and a Glaswegian android fight to overturn the democratic will of the country, while Nigel Farage's security guard insists his party is still relevant.

Discuss.

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Predictions:

 

Conservative +20 (~350)

Labour -20 (~210)

Liberal Democrats +10 (~20)

Scottish Nationalists -10 (~45)

 

With Corbyn pandering to his party membership at the expense of his party electorate, and the country as a whole having no real desire for a change of government, we won't see too many seats change hands. The Tories will have slightly more breathing room, the SNP will fade from their unsustainable high tide mark, and the Lib Dems will bounce back from their brutal savaging two years ago but will still be more or less irrelevant. Ukip will do precisely fuck all.

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I dunno I think the SNP has a shot to at least hold their seats given how heavily against brexit Scotland was.

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They'll easily hold half, if not two thirds of the Scottish seats, but they've lost their majority in Holyrood since the last election and 55/58 is simply unsustainable, especially with the amount of SNP-fatigue the Scots are facing.

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so does this mean the UK is going to bend the knee to the EU after a year of bluster and drama?

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49 minutes ago, michael chasseur said:

so does this mean the UK is going to bend the knee to the EU after a year of bluster and drama?

No

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We have to vote for our new president here, soon (on the other side of the Channel).

Things look more interesting than a few years ago, thanks to the "two-parties system" crisis, shoving aside the traditional center-left vs center-right duel.

So far the general prediction is Le Pen (populist far right) vs *someone* for the second round (in which Le Pen gets beaten regardless according to most polls), the interesting stuff being that this *someone* isn't known yet.

Realistic contenders:

- François Fillon, traditional catholic right, started the campaign with charges against him for hiring his wife as an assistant, among other things. Typical French bourgeoisie. Cornerstone of the program: dealing with the debt.

- Emmanuel Macron, young (<40), former Rotschild employee and ministry of economics a couple years ago, has no real program, rather a vague "project". Cornerstone of the program: change labour laws in favor of more "flexibility", rather towards a German model.

- Jean-Luc Mélenchon, left wing. Is deemed as a "communist" by opponents, says he will tax the rich to help the poor, break up communautarism, etc. . Cornerstone of the program: fiscality, Robin Hood style.

- Benoït Hamon: won the Socialist primary, mostly as a form of reject since he was the most leftist candidate of a party who conducted right-wing policies instead of what they were supposedly elected for. Cornerstone of the program: i have no idea really, mostly left wing progressive memes like universal minimum wage and decriminalization of cannabis.

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I very much doubt Hamon has any realistic chance, short of a miracle. Basic Income is already a hard sell and his vague program doesn't do him any favors. Also everyone seems to be on Mélenchon's wild "Whitewashed Euroskepticism" ride on the left and he's not showing any signs of slowing down.

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Yeah adding Hamon was a bit of a stretch, but since he's the candidate from our current president's party i thought i should have gave him a spot in the list.

Poll-wise, he's not looking great. He already stated he would root for Mélenchon if he doesn't get past the first turn.

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10 hours ago, Tung Yoggi said:

Realistic contenders:

- François Fillon, traditional catholic right, started the campaign with charges against him for hiring his wife as an assistant, among other things. Typical French bourgeoisie. Cornerstone of the program: dealing with the debt.

- Emmanuel Macron, young (<40), former Rotschild employee and ministry of economics a couple years ago, has no real program, rather a vague "project". Cornerstone of the program: change labour laws in favor of more "flexibility", rather towards a German model.

- Jean-Luc Mélenchon, left wing. Is deemed as a "communist" by opponents, says he will tax the rich to help the poor, break up communautarism, etc. . Cornerstone of the program: fiscality, Robin Hood style.

- Benoït Hamon: won the Socialist primary, mostly as a form of reject since he was the most leftist candidate of a party who conducted right-wing policies instead of what they were supposedly elected for. Cornerstone of the program: i have no idea really, mostly left wing progressive memes like universal minimum wage and decriminalization of cannabis.

from an American perspective, the only real choice is Macron or Fillon

Fillon seems like your average frog politician, while Macron seems like a pretty smart guy who can see where France really needs to head to stay competitive and relevant

the rest are batshit nuts or red flag commies

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I get that from an american perspective, but I'll add my 2c. Fillon isn't exactly your typical french politician. Identifying yourself to Thatcher for your will to implement more austerity in post-crisis europe, and France in particular, takes some balls, it's not really something our right tends to do. On the scamming & other niceties, he is def typical. Bonus points for him being percepted as turbo honest for a very long time.. And him basing his whole communication on it.. And him still polling high / running after all the shit that came to light.

Hamon isn't a red flag commie, he won the primary of a mainstream party and has done a bunch of concessions to its center part. France being what it is, you have enough helps to the poor that basic income might as well already exist, so his flagship measure isn't that big. Probably only buffs the rich :3

Even Mélenchon, literally backed by the communist party, isn't exactly looking for a workers revolution or even a real paradigm shift for the economy. The two axis he is pushing is a new constitution which would turn France into a more parliamentary republic and the mother of all keynesian crisis exit plan hoping it won't turn into just french people buying shit from china - not really groundbreaking.

This election is killing me though. 4 fucking people within the margin of error, still having strong dynamics 3 days before the vote.

Also Arkon if you wonder why we're hijacking your thread you probably should have put "UK" in the title, now it sounds like you made a general thread to talk about elections instead of a thread to talk about general elections. VICTORIAN ERA IS OVER NOT CENTER OF THE WORLD ANYMORE.

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On the predictions, I wouldn't even say it's obviously going to be Le Pen v. someone else at this point.

 

Opinion_polling_for_the_French_president

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Le Pen and Macron are probably the current "safe bets" but even Fillon seems to be scrambling back up. I'm more curious what would happen in the seconde tour if Le Pen doesn't make it in.

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Corbyn has good intentions, but he's a bit shit so instead I'm going to vote for some rich cunt that wants me to die.

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Also wait and see a decent number of tory seats pop up here in Scotland. SNP will still be by far the majority party, but that image of the conservatives as a champion of workers against the lazy benefit scrounging underclass is really starting to resonate just the same as it does in north england.

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I wonder which side is going to push the tories as the party of brexit harder. The SNP will want to capitalize on how much Scottland hated it, but the Tories will want to trot it out to make sure every racist grandma gets out to vote in the parts of the UK that approved of it.

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15 hours ago, Bisu said:

I wonder which side is going to push the tories as the party of brexit harder. The SNP will want to capitalize on how much Scottland hated it, but the Tories will want to trot it out to make sure every racist grandma gets out to vote in the parts of the UK that approved of it.

Interestingly enough, the Brexit voting lines for the SNP party membership were pretty much the same as the entirety of Scotland; which by the way had a much lower turnout than the country as a whole. If they push too hard on the pro-EU line they risk alienating a pretty significant portion of their electorate. 

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Doesn't matter anyway, the system is rigged!

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Exit polls say its gonna be Macron getting the pile on from all the other parties to crush Le Pen in the run off, unless she manages to fall out of the top 2 all together which doesn't look likely

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Posted (edited)

Le Pen against Macron, macron win because most of the people are going to vote against le pen : D E M O C R A T Y

#Strawman2k17

Edited by Daide

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Marcon also is beating Le Pen despite the anti Le Pen vote being split like mad. Le Pen going the way of Wilders

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1 hour ago, Daide said:

Le Pen against Macron, macron win because most of the people are going to vote against le pen : D E M O C R A T Y

#Strawman2k17

Its pretty sad but voting against something is generally in your best interests unless the thing your for is really, REALLY popular.  

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What Daide said is right.
A lot of people vote "againts" in france. Just because.

 

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You always vote for whatever you think is the less bad alternative, that really doesn't mean much. 

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A Le Pen getting through the first round and then getting annihilated isn't exactly a surprising outcome. I'd say that Macron is the candidate likely to beat her by the largest margin, as he'd split the anti-establishment vote and wouldn't concede much ground from either economic extreme of the voterbase, but she'll probably double her father's vote share in a few weeks.

Also Charmide is right, most people vote for whatever they deem to be the lesser of two evils, it's relatively rare for people to have a legitimately inspiring option. That's why Clinton failed to stop Trump, why the Tories went from heading up an unpopular coalition to holding an outright majority (a majority which will only grow in a few weeks time) and why this French second round will never really be in doubt.

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